Guru portfolios update | Q1 2025
A look into the Gurus' latest 13F filings
Welcome to your weekly update on investing Gurus. In today’s issue, I share a brief update on the latest changes in the portfolios of some of the Gurus covered over the past few weeks. I’ll be back next week with the regular format, including a deep-dive on a long-term investing Guru and a potential Gem to add to my portfolio.
In case you missed it:
#1 Cloning the world’s best investors (start here)
#4 A Magic Formula (latest deep-dive - Joel Greenblatt)
Guru portfolios
Here is a quick overview of the top holdings of some of the Gurus covered until now.
Note that the 13F filings reflect the US positions on 31st March 2025 and things may have changed since then. As highlighted in the first newsletter, by focusing on those Gurus who have minimal changes from quarter to quarter, we can separate the signal from the noise.
Terry Smith - Fundsmith
Top positions like Meta and Microsoft have been trimmed quite a bit
Most significant increase is Zoetis, the world's largest producer of medicine and vaccinations for pets and livestock - this could be an interesting company to look into a bit more closely
Minor trimming of Alphabet
Fundsmith also has a few non-US positions (L’Oreal, Novo Nordisk, LVMH, …) which are not listed in the 13F, but which we know are in portfolio from the annual letter or regular updates on the Fundsmith website.
Guy Spier - Aquamarine Capital
No changes vs last quarter (at least for the US positions)
As per the most recent Guru Gems portfolio update, I’m curious whether he still has his LVMH position as mentioned in his annual letter
François Rochon - Giverny Capital
Minimal changes in top 10 positions (about 57% of his portfolio)
Minor trimming of Alphabet
Most significant increases:
Kinsale Capital Group, a property and casualty insurance company
Medpace Holdings, a global clinical research organization (a stock we also find in Terry Smith’s portfolio - albeit a very small position)
Chris Bloomstran - Semper Augustus
Some trimming of Berkshire position (in line with what we wrote in our deep-dive on Bloomstran)
Significant increase in Dollar General, a chain of US discount stores, while decreasing his Dollar Tree position (another discounter)
Bloomstran had Dollar General in his portfolio since 2018 and started significantly increasing his position since 2023, which coincides with the time when the stock started to strongly decline. DG was down roughly 70% (!) from early 2023 to early 2025.
Over the past 6 months the stock is back up 30% so there is clearly some positive momentum. This may be driven by DG’s "Back to Basics" strategic initiative, and possibly also by an increased likelihood of a U.S. recession driven by tariff wars. Discount stores are considered defensive stocks, which tend to perform well during economic recessions.
In his annual report, Bloomstran mentions that despite some significant challenges, Dollar General's shares declined to a level that he considers "very undervalued".
Michael Burry - Scion Asset Management
Finally, an update on Michael’s Burry portfolio. As mentioned in my deep-dive on Joel Greenblatt, Burry is not an ideal candidate for Guru Gems since he changes his positions very regularly (sometimes probably even within a quarter)
A lot has been written over the past 2 weeks on X, Substack, … about how Burry sold everything and supposedly went ‘all in’ on Estee Lauder (EL). A couple of thoughts on this:
The 13F filing is just a snapshot in time (in this case 31 March 2025) - things may have changed the next day, the next week, …
While Estee Lauder was his only ‘long position’ on that day, he also had a significant amount of put options (giving him the right to sell a stock at a certain price)
The reported value of the EL stocks was $13M on a total asset value (so including the options) of $199M, so about 6.5%, which is not exactly ‘all in’…
Now, as to what Burry sees in Estee Lauder, there could be a few reasons:
The share price is down more than 80% (!!) since its Dec 2021 peak. The stock has been beaten down due to declining sales in multiple segments, an economic challenging environment in China and the recent fears over the impact of tariffs.
Therefore, EL could be a perfect example of what Burry calls a ‘roadkill’ (see first quote below), which he likes to buy and sell as soon as they’ve been ‘polished up a bit’
From a valuations perspective, it looks cheap based on a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.6 and last month it hit a historically low EV/EBITDA of 12. This last one is Burry’s favorite metric to look at, as he once wrote in his investment strategy (see also second quote below). Based on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 32, EL looks much more expensive, but Burry “tend[s] to ignore price-earnings ratios” anyway.
Another argument for Estee Lauder could be that it is a bet on a coming recession which would trigger a ‘Lipstick effect’. This is where during an economic downturn, consumers still spend money on affordable luxury items like lipstick, as they crave small indulgences to boost their spirits despite facing financial constraints
“My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like roadkill, and sell them when they've been polished up a bit. Management of my portfolio as a whole is just as important to me as stock picking, and if I can do both well, I know I'll be successful.” - Michael Burry
“How do I determine the discount? […] I will screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the enterprise value/EBITDA ratio, though the ratio I am willing to accept tends to vary with the industry and its position in the economic cycle. […] I tend to ignore price-earnings ratios. […]” - Michael Burry
Gems update
Let me finish with a quick update on the Gems in the Guru Gems portfolio:
Alphabet
Alphabet is still the most owned stock across Superinvestors, maintaining its position as ultimate Guru Gem
I still see a lot of articles/posts with a narrative that ‘search is dead’ and that Google will be the next Kodak
The Gurus are clearly not buying that narrative and with everything that has been announced at this week’s Google I/O conference, I am still confident I have a gem in my portfolio
LVMH
LVMH share price declined further since I bought it last month, driven by concerns over tariffs and fears of a weakening global economy.
On Friday, when Trump called for 50% tariffs on EU as per 1 Jun, the stock took another hit. I saw this as an opportunity to buy a bit more, bringing the position to about 7% of the portfolio (at cost)
Magnera
As described in last week’s edition, I started a position in Magnera and bought it on Monday at a price of $12.7/share for 1.1% of the portfolio
That’s it for this week… I’ll be back next week with a new Guru and a potential new Gem to look into!